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Monday, March 21, 2011

Fort Thomas Census Update - No Declining Population


I have mentioned it before on this site, but Fort Thomas couldn't be losing residents at the rate that the Census had estimated it over the past decade.  Usually these comments have come in relation to the news that Fort Thomas schools are bursting at the seems.

Now we have confirmation that the formula they were using to estimate the population this past decade was flawed - 1,000+ residents flawed!  I have included a chart below of the population estimates over the past decade:




Total Population

July 1, 2008
15,222
July 1, 2007
15,290
July 1, 2006
15,390
July 1, 2005
15,541
July 1, 2004
15,697
July 1, 2003
15,950
July 1, 2002
16,175
July 1, 2001
16,375
July 1, 2000
16,478
April 1, 2000 (Estimates Base)
16,495
April 1, 2000 (Census 2000)
16,495



These numbers indicated a 1,200+ drop over 10 years.  This past week's census data release for Kentucky's cities, towns, counties showed that the actual population 16,325 or a loss of only about 100 people.  I would say that is the picture of a very stable community that we all know and love.

With such a large disparity over the past ten years between estimates and actuals you have to wonder what impact this had on funding, taxes, etc.  The census estimating models are flawed and will likely show an estimated population decrease over the coming decade.  It would be wise to challenge these estimates in the future.

Additional demographic data such as age groups, race, income, etc are not yet available but will be in future data releases.  No timetable has been set yet for this release.

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